Factors of Intensification of SME Resources under External Uncertainty

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent a dynamic and significant component of economic development in leading countries and regions, accounting for more than fifty percent of their gross domestic and regional product growth. In the context of the Russian economy, the contribution of SMEs to the country's economic welfare over the past ten years is only twenty percent showing no significant positive trend. Russia lags significantly behind the leading countries, which is due, among other things, to a threefold productivity gap in the SME sector.
At the same time, the phenomenon of successful SMEs is one of the key challenges addressed by the international academic community. Being flexible organizational structures that are capable of proactive actions and rapid response to the challenges of the external environment, SMEs, as a rule, are significantly limited in financial and economic opportunities to achieve their goals. It requires developing the relevant management tools at the firm level and targeted methods of economic policy at the regional and national levels. Given the scientific significance of the study of SMEs and the relevance of increasing the number of SMEs, this project aims to address the problem of SME development in a highly uncertain external environment.

The scientific novelty of the project is determined, first, by the development of the Recourse Based View (Barney, 1991) by building new models of SME behavior in a highly uncertain environment; second, by developing the concept of intellectual capital (Stewart, 2001) by enriching it by taking digital technology into account; third, by improving the methodology of SME behavior research based on open data analysis, application of machine learning and textual analysis tools; fourth, generating new empirical knowledge on the key factors, both external and internal, for SME development.

The practical implication of the project is the preparation of methodical recommendations for SMEs on information disclosure and the creation of a positive digital image on the Internet. The project is based on modern methods of data collection, processing, and analysis, involves active cooperation with representatives of small and medium-sized enterprises and government representatives focused on creating a favorable environment for the development of SMEs.

The study intends to create a scientific basis for diagnosing the critical factors of innovative development of SMEs and identifying the conditions for their activation.

Given the classical division into exogenous and endogenous factors in relation to SMEs, this study, on the one hand, will be aimed at identifying the most effective government regulatory programs and support measures, on the other hand, will focus on what SMEs themselves can do to increase their stability and development, investment attractiveness and financial performance.

The project is expected to achieve internationally recognized results in strategic management, economics, and SME governance.

Results defining a contribution to the development of the Resource-Based View and the Intellectual Capital theories:

• Development of a conceptual model for the intensification of SME resources in a highly uncertain environment.
• Development of principles for the formation of a digital image of SMEs.

Results elaborating on methodological aspects of management and economics of SMEs:

• Development of a system of metrics for diagnosing the digital intellectual capital of SMEs.
• Development of a program code for collecting data from open sources regarding the disclosure of information on measures of state support for SMEs on the official websites of the relevant ministries and departments.
• Development of a program code for the analysis of textual data regarding the image of SMEs.

Results reflecting new empirical knowledge:

• Estimating the impact of digital intellectual capital on the performance of SMEs.
• Description of the best practices for intensive growth of SMEs in an environment of high uncertainty.
• Estimating the effectiveness of government support for SMEs.

Based on the results of the study, it is planned to develop a toolkit for assessing the effectiveness of government support measures for SMEs and guidelines for SMEs on information disclosure and creating a positive digital image in the Internet.

• On 8 May 2024, IDLab held a scientific seminar to discuss the preliminary results of the research “Unlocking the Power of Human Capital: How SMEs Can Increase Their Resilience” by authors Molodchik M.A., Zavertyaeva M.A., Kirpishchikov D.A. and Kireecheva A.D. More information about the event at the link.
• On 5 April 2024, within the framework of the XI scientific conference "Neighbors in Science" at HSE University-Perm, a separate section "State Regulation, Innovation Development, Support for SMEs" was organised, at which participants of the research project presented their work (more details at the link):
  • Naidenova Y.N., Smirnov A.O., Parshakov P.A. “Analysing the Determinants of Receiving State Support by Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Russia”
  • Teplykh G.V., Molodchik M.A. "Influence of State Support on the Intensity of Innovations in Russia".
  • Shalaeva E.V., Naidenova Y.N. "Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Risk-Taking Levels Among Russian Companies".
  • Markanova D.A., Ivanov E.A., Molodchik M.A., Bykova A.A. "Priority Investment Projects: Assessing Impact on Financial Performance of Companies".

At other sections of the conference "Neighbors in Science" the following reports were presented within the framework of the research project:

• Zavertyaeva M.A., Molodchik M.A., Kirpishchikov D.A., Kireecheva A.D. "Improving the Resilience of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Through Human Capital Intensification"
• Naidanov I.V., Zavertyaeva M.A. “Enhancing Firm Profitability through Social Media Content: Evidence from Russia”
• On 27 March 2024, a workshop "State Support for SMEs" was held, where 4 research reports on this topic were presented, along with a presentation on the implementation of the national program by the head of the SME Development Agency of the Perm Region, A.A. Bykova. More information about the event at the link. The following reports were presented at the workshop:
  • Molodchik M.A. "Theoretical Foundations of State Support for SMEs"
  • Bykova A.A. "Practice of State Support for SMEs in the Perm Region"
  • Ivanov E.A., Markanova D.A. "Assessing the Effectiveness of the 'Priority Investment Project' Tool"
  • Cherednikova E.I. "Impact of State Support on SME Financial Indicators"
  • Teplykh G.V. "Role of Direct State Support in Stimulating R&D"
• On 14 February 2024, the IDLab Research Seminar was held, where Anna Daviy together with Maria Molodchik presented a research on "Unraveling Digital Enigmas: Entrepreneurial Orientation and Digitization of SMEs".  More information about the event at the link.
• On 12 January 2024, a master class was held by A.A. Bykova, Head of the SME Development Agency of the Perm Region, on "Development of Small and Medium-Sized Entrepreneurship in the Perm Region". More information about the event at the link.
• On 25 October 2023, the IDLab Research Seminar was held, where invited researcher Alina Urazbaeva presented her study on the topic "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Government Policies to Stimulate Entrepreneurship During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Regional Aspects". More information about the event at the link.
• On October 11 2023, the IDLab Research Seminar was held, where Kamilla Isoeva together with Maria Molodchik presented a study on the topic "Impact of Intellectual Capital on Company Performance: Role of Regional Environment." More information about the event at the link.
• 3-7 October 2023, in the framework of the X Annual International Scientific Conference "Economics and Management" (EMC 2023), the participants of the research project presented the following report (more information at the link):
  • Ivanov E., Molodchik M., Naidenova Y., Shenkman E. "Identifying ICT Profiles and Investigating the Role of Technology Complementarity in Improving Company Performance".
• 11-15 September 2023, in the framework of the Russian Economic Congress (REC-2023) the participants of the research project presented the following reports (more details at the link):
  • Naidenova Y.N., Smirnov A.O. “The Impact of ERP Implementation on Operational Efficiency of Russian Companies”
  • Molodchik M.A., Isoeva K.M. “Regional Development as a Factor in Transforming Intellectual Capital into Firm Performance”
  • Daviy A.O., Molodchik M.A., Shakina E.A. “ICT and Productivity of Companies: Russian vs Foreign Vendors”
•  On 6 September 2023, the IDLab Research Seminar was held, where Ekaterina Nemchenko, Anastasia Pustynnikova and Viktor Krakovich presented a research on “The Influence of CEO Characteristics on Pricing in Initial Coin Offerings”. More information about the event at the link.

During the first year of the project “Factors of SME Resource Intensification Under Conditions of External Uncertainty”, the research team under the leadership of Y.N. Naidenova carried out all the necessary work on literature review, data collection and analysis, development of research designs and obtained the following results:

• Trends in empirical studies of SMEs' activities have been identified. Firstly, there are changes in the choice of dependent variable: there is a shift in the focus of research from analysing factors determining SME performance to factors contributing to sustainable SME development and to factors determining the emergence of new SMEs. Secondly, a significant number of articles use the exogenous COVID-19 pandemic shock to test SMEs' response to the crisis and analyse the effectiveness of public policies supporting SMEs during crisis periods. Thirdly, the tendency of the research search for mechanisms of SME resource intensification, i.e. the identification of moderating factors and mediators of the transformation of resources into SME outcomes, is highlighted.
• Trends in empirical research on analysing the effectiveness of state support measures for SMEs have been identified. Firstly, indirect support measures, such as tax incentives, are actively investigated.  However, the results of the studies do not reach unambiguous conclusions about the positive impact of these measures. Secondly, the need for the development of new econometric tools to assess the effectiveness of SME public policy is identified. Thirdly the phenomenon of "zombie firms," which has been examined in foreign companies but remains unexplored within the context of the Russian economy, presents an interesting area for further investigation. Fourthly, a new research field is being formed to study the use of social media by the authorities to reduce information asymmetry asymmetry when providing state support.
• The key factors associated with the probability of receiving state support by small and medium-sized enterprises in Russia from the metallurgy industry were identified. It was determined that the mention of certain goods or materials on the website, the company's location and its orientation towards foreign stakeholders significantly correlate with the probability of obtaining state support. The effect varies depending on the type of support and the size category of the enterprise.
• A toolkit is proposed to identify the impact of company website text content as part of the digital profile of SMEs on the probability of receiving state support. The design includes a two-step regression analysis, which first estimates a binary choice model and then a LASSO (Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) model to analyse the impact of company website text content on the probability of receiving state support.
• The specifics of the metallurgical industry in terms of priority areas of state support in Russia were analysed. It was found that the priority areas of state support for SMEs in the metallurgy industry are reducing the negative impact on the environment, digitalisation, improving the quality and manufacturability of products, stimulating product and production innovation, improving production safety, quality of working conditions and growth of human resources, export and market expansion.
• Software codes for collecting and processing data on the digital profile of SMEs were developed. Firstly, a C# programme code was developed and tested for automating the collection of data from SMEs' official VKontakte social network accounts to identify the number of views, visitor reactions and contextual content of the respective SME's Vkontakte page. Secondly, an R-language code was written to facilitate the automated gathering of data from the texts of SMEs' websites on the internet.
• A unique database including information on 169622 Russian SMEs for the period from 2013 to 2022 in 19 industries according to OKVED was created. The database features 55 financial indicators and 40 non-financial characteristics of SMEs. For the period from 2019 to 2022, the database contains information on various measures of state support received by SMEs.

The results of the project were discussed at research seminars and presented in the form of ten reports at three specialised conferences.

• On 22-25 April 2025, project participants presented their research at the IX International Conference of Students and Young Scientists "Spring Days of Science" (Ural Federal University, Yekaterinburg, Russia). More informayion at the link:
  • Kireecheva A.D., Shenkman E.A., Maksimova I.A.: "Digitalization as a driver of SME growth: regional approach"
  • Shalaeva E.V.: "The impact of market uncertainty on the efficiency of small and medium-sized enterprises: the role of government support",  supervisor Yulia Naidenova
• On 22 April 2025, another seminar was held within the framework of the project, during which (for more details follow the link):
  • Bykova A.A. (Minister of Agroindustrial Complex of Perm Krai) presented a report on "SMEs in the agro-industrial complex: analysis and challenges for the state".
  • Teplykh G.V., Kirpishchikov D.A., Ivanov E.A. presented an updated version of the database on small and medium-sized enterprises that includes both financial indicators of companies and data on state support, along with preliminary analysis based on it.
  • Molodchik M.A., Zavertyaeva M.A., Kirpishchikov D.A., Kireecheva A.D. presented the results of the research "Impact of Human Capital on SME Performance: Mediating Effect of Risk Taking".
• On 21 April 2025, project participants presented their research at the II Scientific Conference "Neighbors in Research" (Higher School of Economics, Perm, Russia). More information at the link:
  • Kireecheva A.D., Shenkman E.A., Maksimova I.A.: "Digitalization as a driver of SME growth: regional approach"
  • Daviy A.O., Molodchik M.A., Hardon C.: "The Impact of Entrepreneurial Orientation on the Level of Digitalization in SMEs"
  • Shalaeva E.V.: "The impact of market uncertainty on the efficiency of small and medium-sized enterprises: the role of government support",  supervisor Yulia Naidenova
• On 15-18 April 2025, project participants presented their research at the XXV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Problems of Economic and Social Development (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia). More information at the link:
  • Molodchik M.A., Volodin D.A., Krakovich V.V., Makurin R.A.: "Study of the Phenomenon of Zombie Firms among Russian Small and Medium Enterprises
  • Daviy A.O., Molodchik M.A., Hardon C.: "The Impact of Entrepreneurial Orientation on the Level of Digitalization in SMEs"
• On 9 February 2025, at the IDLab workshop Parshakov P.A., Paklina S.N., Shenkman E.A. presented preliminary results on the topic "Digital Relational Capital as a Driver of Financial Success in Russian Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises." More information at the link.
• On 31 January 2025, at the regular IDLab seminar Krakovich V.V. presented the research "Digital Transformation of Small and Medium Business: Decade of Academic Studies," co-authored with Shenkman E.A., Naidenova Y.N., Shakina E.A. More information at the link.
• On 12-14 December 2024, at the XII International Practical Conference "Schumpeter Readings" at PSTU, researchers from the project presented the following reports (more information at the link):
  • Shenkman E.A., Naidenova Y.N., Shakina E.A., Krakovich V.V.: "Digital Transformation of Small and Medium Business: Decade of Academic Studies"
  • Molodchik M.A., Daviy A.O., Hardon K.: "Influence of Entrepreneurial Orientation of Small Businesses on Firm Digitization Levels"

• On 29 November 2024, at the IDLab workshop Shenkman E.A. presented the results of the research on the topic “Digital Transformation of Small and Medium-Sized Entrepreneurship: a Decade of Academic Research”, the work was done in co-authorship with Naidenova Y.N, Krakovich V.D., Shakina E.A.
• On 13 November 2024, at the III L.L. Lyubimov student research-to-practice conference at the HSE University - Perm the participants of the research project presented the following reports (more information at the link):

• Makurin R.A., Volodin D.A.  “Investigating the Phenomenon of Zombie Firms for Russian Small and Medium-Sized Companies”
• Kireecheva A.D. “Increasing the Resilience of Russian Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises through Human Capital Intensification"

• On 1-5 October 2024, in the framework of the XI Annual International Scientific Conference “Economics and Management” (EMC 2024) the participants of the research project presented the following report (more details at the link):

• Kirpishchikov D.A., Zavertyaeva M.A., Parshakov P.A. “Factors Affecting the Probability of Inspections by Prosecutors of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Russia”

• On 26-29 September 2024, at the IV International Conference on Econometrics and Business Analytics iCEBA-2024 the participants of the research project presented the following report (more details at the link):
• Molodchik M.A., Bykova A.A., Ivanov E.A., Markanova D.A. “Assessing the Impact of State Support for SMEs Using the Synthetic Control Method”
• On 13 September 2024, at the IDLab workshop the preliminary results of the research on identifying "zombie companies" and "gazelle companies" in Russia's small and medium-sized businesses from 2013 to 2023 were discussed, speakers Makurin R.A., Volodin D.A., the research is carried out under the guidance of Molodchik M.A., Krakovich V.D. More details at the link.
• On 4-6 July 2024, at the 48th International Conference of the Eurasian Business and Economics Society (48th EBES) the participants of the research project presented the following reports (more information at the link):
• Shenkman E.A., Naidenova Y.N. “Economic Uncertainty and New SMEs: A Panel VECM Approach”
• Molodchik M.A., Zavertyaeva M.A., Kirpishchikov D.A., Kireecheva A.D. “Unlocking the Power of Human Capital: How SMEs Can Increase Their Resilience”
• On 27 June 2024, the workshop was held dedicated to the interim results and prospects of the research implemented under the RSF grant. The following papers were discussed at the event (more details at the link):

• Daviy A.O., Molodchik M.A. “Entrepreneurial Orientation As a Key Factor of Digitalisation and Digital Transformation of SMEs”
• Ivanov E.A., Markanova D.A., Molodchik M.A., Bykova A.A. “Methodology for Calculating the Effectiveness of State Support to SMEs under the "Priority Investment Projects’ Programme”
• Krakovich V.D., Shenkman E.A., Naidenova Y.N. “Digitalisation of SMEs: A Systematic Literature Review”
• Shenkman E.A., Naidenova Y.N. “Economic Uncertainty and New SMEs: A Panel VECM Approach”

During the second year of the project implementation, the research team obtained the following key theoretical, methodological, and empirical results:

• Theoretical justification of the influence of industry characteristics on SME capital structure. It was shown that classical capital structure theories, due to the specifics of SMEs in Russia (e.g., taxation and availability of financing sources), do not fully explain capital structure selection patterns. The influence of industry specifics on the formation of the capital structure of SMEs is substantiated and potentially influencing characteristics of the industry are proposed.
• An expansion of the resource-based view was proposed through integration with contingency theory to analyze human resource intensification and its impact on SME resilience. It is suggested that both external and internal factors influence SMEs, and the effect may be amplified through effective human resource utilization.
• Development of a methodology for applying the synthetic control method to assess the effectiveness of selective government support measures for Russian SMEs. The methodology involves selecting a control group based on industry affiliation and firm size, with data availability for at least three years before and after the intervention. The methodology has been tested on the support provided to companies with investment projects that have received the status of “Priority Investment Project”.
• A methodology has been developed for assessing the causal  relationship between various forms of government support and the financial performance of SMEs. The proposed methodology will provide a more accurate assessment of the impact of support at different periods and will allow for the gradual implementation of support measures.
• A code was developed to assess the sentiment of SME posts on the social network VKontakte using the RuBERT language model, fine-tuned on the RuSentiment dataset. The code was applied to a large corpus (over 2 billion) of companies’ posts in the VKontakte social network.
• An empirical analysis of industry-specific factors affecting the capital structure of Russian SMEs was conducted, revealing distinct industry factors between small and medium-sized enterprises.
• Empirical testing of how personal characteristics of SME executives affect the level of digitalization revealed that education level positively impacts digital transformation, whereas age has a negative effect. These findings are discussed in more detail in the article Daviy, A. O., Molodchik, M. A., Matveeva-Ram, E. E., & Sanina, K. Yu. (2024). The role of CEO personal characteristics for enterprise digitalization. Russian Management Journal, 22(4), 698–718. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu18.2024.404
• A case study of seven firms participating in the “Priority Investment Project” program highlighted diverse effects depending on timing, industry specifics, and project stage. This underscores the need for individualized support within state aid mechanisms. A key finding was the significance of the project implementation stage. These findings are detailed in the article Molodchik, M. A., Bykova, A. A., Ivanov, E. A., & Markanova, D. A. Evaluating the effects of state support for SMEs: Application of the synthetic control method, accepted for publication in Applied Econometrics.
• Empirical testing of links between initial coin offering (ICO) project leaders’ traits and organizational "innovative competence" found that longer CEO tenure positively correlates with funds raised in ICOs for innovative SMEs, whereas CEO dominance negatively impacts ICO volume, suggesting the benefits of flexible management structures. These results are detailed in Krakovich, V. V., Nemchenko, E. S., & Pustynnikova, A. A. (2025). The impact of CEOs’ characteristics on pricing at initial coin offerings. Journal of the New Economic Association, 66(1), 132–157. https://doi.org/10.31737/22212264_2025_1_132-157

Project participants presented preliminary results in 16 presentations at 9 conferences: 48th International conference Eurasia Business and Economics Society (48th EBES, Istanbul, Turkey), IV International Conference on Econometrics and Business Analytics iCEBA-2024 (Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan), ХI Annual International Conference "Economics and Management" (EMC 2024, St. Petersburg State University, Russia), XI International Conference on Applied Economics (iCare, HSE University, Perm, Russia), XII International Scientific-Practical Conference "Schumpeterian Readings" (Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Perm, Russia), XXV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development (HSE University, Moscow, Russia), XII "Neighbors in Research" Conference (HSE University, Perm, Russia), IX International Conference for Students and Young Researchers "Spring Days of Science" (UrFU, Yekaterinburg, Russia), III student scientific and practical conference named after L.L Lyubimov (HSE University, Perm, Russia).

A series of seminars was held at the. International Laboratory of Intangible-driven Economy (HSE University, Perm), where the team shared the preliminary findings. Furthermore, two workshops were conducted with the participation of external experts.

• On November 19, 2025, at the research group seminar, Ilya Naidanov presented a study titled “The Impact of Social Media Comments on the Profitability of Russian Companies,” conducted jointly with M. A. Zaveryaeva. (more information at the link).
• On 8-11 November 2025, Anna Daviy presented research titled "The Impact of Entrepreneurial Orientation on the Level of Digitalization in SMEs" at the International Conference on Entrepreneurship and Sustainable Development in Qatar. The study was carried out jointly with Carlos Fernández Jardón and Maria Molodchik (fmore information at the link).
• On 1–4 October 2025, Dmitry Volodin presented the paper titled "Research on the phenomenon of zombie firms for Russian small and medium-sized enterprises" at the 12th Annual International Scientific Economy & Management Conference 2025 (EMC 2025). The study was conducted jointly with Roman Makurin, Mariia Molodchik, and Viktor Krakovich (more information at the link)
• On 26 September 2025, Iuliia N. Naidenova presented the results of the current phase of the study and discussed with participants the work plans for 2025–2026—the third year of project implementation (more information at the link).
• On 4 September 2025, Yulia Naydenova presented the research "Modern Trends and Vectors for the Development of Small and Medium Enterprises" at a roundtable organized by Kommersant-Prikame newspaper. The event brought together small and medium-sized enterprises from various sectors, HR experts, financial institutions and representatives of Perm region’s statistical bodies (more details at the link).
• On 21 August 2025, Viktor Krakovich presented his paper co-authored with Shenkman E.A., Naidenova Y.N. and Shakina E.A., titled "Mapping SME Digital Transformation: A Decade of Academic Debates" at the International Scientific Conference "Evidence-Based Management" (more information at the link).
• On 3-5 July 2025, participants of the project presented their research at the 52nd International Conference of the Eurasian Business and Economics Society (EBES) held in Istanbul, Turkey (more details at the link):
  • Molodchik M.A., Zavertyaeva M.A., Kirpishchikov D.A., Kireecheva A.D.: "Human Capital and Risk in SMEs: The Moderating Roles of Economic Uncertainty, Firm Size and Government Support."