IDLab Scientific Seminar: How Coaches Utilize Home Advantage in Football?

On November 15, 2024, at the scientific seminar of the International Laboratory of Intangible-driven Economy (IDLab) at HSE University, Andrey Smirnov, a research assistant at the Laboratory of Sports Studies, presented his report on the topic "How Home Advantage Affects Coaches' Strategic Decisions in Football."

Home advantage in football has long been considered a factor influencing match outcomes. Fans, referee support, and familiar surroundings create conditions in which home teams often perform better. However, the impact of these factors on pre-match decisions made by coaches has not been sufficiently studied. Andrey Smirnov presented the results of his work aimed at understanding how this advantage influences tactical strategies.

The research examined data from leading European football leagues. It was found that coaches adjust player formations for home matches, for instance, by adding an extra forward. Additionally, an interesting pattern was identified: players who have performed well not only in the previous match but also throughout the season are more likely to remain in the starting lineup if the upcoming game is at home. These findings indicate that coaches take into account the psychological and tactical aspects of home advantage when forming their teams.

The presenter introduced a theoretical model explaining why having home advantage motivates coaches to adopt a more aggressive playing style. According to the model, an aggressive strategy at home increases expected goals (xG), which is also supported by empirical data. These results provide deeper insights into why coaches adapt their decisions based on the venue of the match.

The presentation sparked lively discussion among seminar participants, with a focus on the assumptions of the theoretical model and their justification.